Brought to you by c|net, the computer network <http://www.cnet.com/ > (Not really, but if c|net has a million dollars to spend on advertising (see the "This and That" section), I figured I'd give them a freebie in the hopes that some of the million dollars might someday flow my way...
Copyright © 1995 Robert Seidman (robert@clark.net). All rights reserved. May be reproduced in any medium for non-commercial purposes.
It has been a busy time for me and reviews of Mac AOL and eWorld will have to wait.
This Thursday, I'm scheduled to meet with Prodigy chief, Ed Bennett. If all goes as planned, hopefully I'll have some good scoop and some Bennetisms in next week's edition.
I have to admit that even I am tiring of all the numbers that are bubbling up regarding online services. But two more surveys were announced this week, and we believe in equal time...
The most difficult task with all the surveys is making any sense out of them when you put the data from all of the surveys together. While there are subtle and not so subtle differences in the results, the one theme that holds true across all of the surveys is that the market is growing like wildfire.
The second major study by the Times Mirror Center did say that people who go online have "a decided softness in attitudes toward on-line activities and a fragile pattern of use.."
I believe that is true and I think it is important that anyone doing business online be aware of such things. Still, according to the Times Mirror Center study, the number of people who use online services went from 5 million in the Winter of 1994 to 12 million last June. Whatever else you can say, that's phenomenal!
But the study shows something my brother, who is still not online, believes: there isn't a compelling enough reason to go online for most people. Indeed it would seem that for most, online services and Internet access are not a "must have". Only 32% of those surveyed would miss it "a lot" if the services were no longer available. To give you an idea of how that stacks up, the survey says that 58% of newspaper readers and 54% of cable TV subscribers would miss those services if they were taken away.
According to the survey, last winter there were 11 million Americans with access to a computer with a modem at home. By last June, the figure had shot up to 18 million. The study points out that the 12 million who use online services represent only two-thirds of the people with access to a computer with a modem. While that means there is significant room for more growth, I'd say that the glass is "half-full".
The Times Mirror study demonstrates something I've believed for some time-that even with the improvements to technology, the growth of the Web, etc., that e-mail is still the "killer app".
The report said, "Few see on-line activities as essential to them, and no single on-line feature, with the exception of e-mail, is used with any regularity." The survey says that only one in five online users, or 3% of Americans has ever used the Web. Keep in mind though, that as of June the amount of time that the Web had been accessible from the major online services was small.
Other Nuggets from the Times Mirror Center study:
The Times Mirror Center for The People and The Press interviewed 3,603 adults in May and June by telephone and selected an additional sample of 402 adult online users. The survey had a 3% margin of error with regard to results from online service users (vs. a 2% margin of error for the total sampling).
*But Wait, There's More*
On Friday, Washington, D.C. based Information & Interactive Services Report (IISR) released findings for their quarterly census of 64 electronic services. According to IISR, as of 9/30/95, there were 9,851,600 using one of the 64 services, up from 8,556,800 in IISR's end of June census.
The press release said something about how America Online can now narrowly lay claim to being the largest online service in the World, just nudging out CompuServe. Of course, if you've been reading this newsletter for a while, you've known that for a while. And of course, the press release doesn't mention CompuServe's 900K or so Nifty-Serve customers or that AOL includes trial subscribers in their numbers (even if 85% of them do convert).
I can't vouch for the accuracy of these numbers (you can attribute to IISR's study), but if you factor in everything we know (Nifty-Serve, etc.), these numbers track pretty well.
As of 9/30/95 according to IISR:
Service # of Subscribers (world wide) ======== ================= America Online 3,800,000 CompuServe 3,540,000 Prodigy 1,720,000 Microsoft Network 200,000 Delphi 125,000 eWorld 115,000
A couple of notes:
GEnie was pushed off the list of the top six list of operators with more than 100,000 subscribers-by Microsoft Network. While the 200K MSN doesn't seem threatening, consider that as of this "census", the service had only been available for 5 weeks, and only to people with Win 95 (which had also only been available for 5 weeks).
In an unrelated story during a press conference (as reported by both Reuters and the Cowles/SIMBA Media Daily), Microsoft treasurer Greg Maffei said Microsoft is pleased with the sign-up rate. While Maffei didn't give any numbers, he did say that they had not yet reached their self-imposed limit of 500,000 subscribers. Microsoft has pledged to freeze MSN subscriptions temporarily at 500,000 to review the impact on performance, etc.
According to the IISR, on average 14,000 Americans per day signed up for online services during the quarter. America Online led the way, averaging 65K accounts per week to add 800K for the quarter, followed by CompuServe, who added 320K for the quarter. Prodigy, lagged behind adding only 120K for the quarter and fell below double digit growth numbers. That may change soon, as I just got my first ever Prodigy disk direct marketed at me via the U.S. Mail.
Several readers forwarded an interesting item about CompuServe taking a stand on "junk e-mail" that was being mass-mailed to their members. These sort of mass-mailing and/or posting to newsgroups are often referred to as "Spam".
Lately, I've received several letters from AOL subscribers who had informed me that it appeared that after being in a chat room for any length of time, they would mysteriously receive "junk e-mail" advertisements sent from the Internet. Apparently, some of these folks are stalking chat rooms to acquire lists of names. Similarly, they apparently track newsgroups and other forums to come up with lists of names. Then these services charge "advertising" fees. Similar sleaze has sprung up from services offering to "spam" multiple mailing lists that reach hundreds of thousands of addresses.
It's indeed a problem. What we learned from those dreadful lawyers (I won't mention their names) is that as much as it ticks most everyone off-it works. If 99% of a million people hate it, for those advertising, a response of 10,000 is a bonanza. Many people say "so what, how is this any different than junk mail?". To date, I'd have to agree with that. The problem is, that traditional junk mail has something to deter "just anyone" from sending it. It costs money to do direct mail. Direct mail via the Internet, on the other hand, is very, very easy, and very, very cheap.
To date, simply deleting mail has been effective. As long as this remains the case for the foreseeable future, the delete key is the only protection I think we really need. But I worry that in the future, it will get worse. Much worse. Then what? CompuServe is beginning to find out.
The problems started when CompuServe received many complaints about a "flood" of unsolicited advertisements that was being sent to tens of thousands of CompuServe members. These notices came from a Pennsylvania based company called Promo Enterprises. CompuServe distributed an update via the newsgroups about the problems. I received several copies of this, and was curious about the authenticity of the account so I spoke with CompuServe spokesperson Pierce Reid and Mail Products Manager, Mike Finney who verified the notices I'd received.
"We certainly don't want to discourage advertising," said Reid, "But people want an 'easy out' for opting off such distribution lists." While the Promo Enterprises Web site now lists a new "auto-remover" feature, as of this writing, it isn't clear whether instructions on how to use the "auto-remover" to get off of the distribution lists are included in each message or when the feature became available.
CompuServe went to bat for their subscribers. According to Reid and Finney, they contacted Promo Enterprises president, Sanford Wallace asking his company to please desist from further mailings to CompuServe subscribers.
According to Reid, Wallace wouldn't consider alternatives to his companies approach.
Reid further stated that Wallace threatened to mailbomb and Spam CompuServe members if CompuServe tried to interfere with Promo Enterprises' sending of the messages.
According to Reid, Wallace then made good on his threats. Not only were thousands of messages sent to CompuServe members and employees, but according to Reid and Finney, Promo Enterprises "spoofed" a CompuServe mailing address on one of its messages sent to thousands of Internet users. This made the e-mail messages appear as if they had come from CompuServe (according to Reid, worse till it was the address of a CompuServe employee) causing all of the error messages to bounce back to CompuServe. Not to mention all the mail complaining about the mailing.
While CompuServe probably doesn't have any "legal" grounds to stop the "spam", they are pursuing legal action with regard to what they consider harassment (i.e., mailbombing, spoofing, etc.).
CompuServe's goal is to protect their members from unwanted e-mail. But that opens up a can of worms. A can of worms that Promo Enterprises is capitalizing on via its own Web page at <http://www.webcom.com/~promoent/ >.
Here's a blurb from the Promo Enterprises site:
"Did you know that CompuServe has decided for their members that it is inappropriate for them to receive Promo Enterprises' commercial e-mail messages? In addition, now that CompuServe does not receive postage for Internet mail, they feel that the burden should not be theirs to handle Promo's incoming mail. CompuServe wants to capitalize on their internet connectivity, yet they don't seem to want to pay the price of doing business. We think that is bad business."
I could really get on a rant here, but when I saw the blurb on Promo's "Auto-remover", that pretty much shut me up. If that's true, there's not much left to say. While I in no way advocate the approach used by Promo Enterprises, I don't believe in censorship. If getting off of their mailing list is as simple as indicated on Promo Enterprise's Web page and instructions are included in every message sent by Promo Enterprises , I say let them continue. As annoying as it may seem to some, the flip side of censorship is far too scary to consider. On the other hand, if the info on how to get off the distribution list isn't included...
Since I found out about the "auto-remover" too late to ask CompuServe or Promo Enterprises about it, I'll follow up on this in a future issue.
*the following went out to the e-mail distribution list and expands on my comments above-this might not make sense on the Web because it also included a correction to the Intuit piece, which, if you're reading this in order, you haven't read yet!
I wrote with regard to the new Quicken Internet access that the pricing would be:
"Access can be had a la carte at as little as $1.95/mo. for one hour of service. Also available will be a plan for $9.95/mo. for even hours, with additional hours at $9.95.
^^^^
Intuit's made some mistakes, but nothing like that. It should have read $1.95/hr. for additional hours.
Since I have you, I've already received several pieces of strongly worded e-mail for not coming out strongly enough against spammers and bulk e-mailers. To me, this is a very difficult issue. CompuServe, AOL, etc., are commercial enterprises and the 1st amendment doesn't really apply for them. I find the whole bulk e-mail thing deplorable myself, but that's for ME.
I don't want to decide for anyone else what they should get, and I don't want anyone else deciding for me. Honestly, I think CompuServe did the correct thing. However, once you start down the path of blocking messages, it can get dangerous from there. Who decides what to block?
I'd agree some sort of protection needs to be established with regard to unsolicited e-mails-along the lines of the protection offered for real mail and the telephone. But we're still dealing with a very new and foggy area. Companies like Promo Enterprise exploit the newness of it all and benefit further from the press they generate from their exploitation. With any luck, this will backfire on them and get decent legislation passed outlining rules for marketing in "cyberspace". We can only hope.
My piece changed significantly when I saw the Promo Enterprises Web site and found that they claimed a new "auto-remover" feature for removing an address from the list. When I spoke with CompuServe, they indicated that nothing like that was available (that may have been the case at the time, and may be the case now-I don't know yet, but I will report on it as soon as I find out.)
Intuit is banking (no pun intended) that you will soon be "into it" via their popular Quicken personal finance software. Later this month, Intuit will launch a new version of Quicken, Quicken for Windows for 96. (for ease, I'll refer to this as Q4W496). Quicken dominates the personal finance software market with about a 70% share (7 million users) and Intuit has said that there are already a million orders for the forthcoming version. Q4W496 will include a version of the popular Netscape browser (which dominates with its own 70 percent of the browser market). Here's where it gets interesting. Quicken will offer its own branded access to the Internet via the Concentric Network Corp. (formerly Concentric Research Corp.)
Access can be had a la carte at as little as $1.95/mo. for one hour of service. Also available will be a plan for $9.95/mo. for seven hours, with additional hours at $1.95.
While most analysts are predicting that this will not initially bring many users to the Internet, most concede that it is a step in the right direction.
Q4W96 will also offer some home banking services as previously reported, but with the Web access, Quicken users will also have access to the Quicken Financial Network (QFN) -- we're guessing this will be at <http://www.qfn.com >, though currently, only a press release is there. QFN will offer financial information from Intuit and its financial partners.
(Hey, the Wall Street Journal has a lock on "Heard on the Street", what could I do?).
Inside sources at a few of America Online's content partners expressed interest in my piece last week on America Online's Web browser (both the one integrated into AOL, and the one they're using for the separately branded GNN service). I noted last week that the GNN browser had integrated some HTML 3.0 and some Netscapese. I'd asked Steve Case whether we could expect to see these features in the integrated AOL browser.
Case said that while the AOL and GNN services will have distinct features, that it was only a matter of time before the expanded HTML features would show up in the integrated AOL browser. Apparently too much time for some. Two insiders from different companies wrote to say that while Case's words were nice, that the skinny they're getting from AOL's Web design team doesn't leave them optimistic that the HTML 3 features will be integrated into AOL's Web browser anytime soon. Allegedly a 3.0 version of the AOL software is in the offing for later this year or early next year, and neither of the sources were confident that the HTML 3 features would be in the new version of the AOL software.
"I do fear that HTML 3.0 and Netscapese will not be included in the year-end releases. I would agree that this features are a MUST if AOL intends to compete, but since Netscapese extensions were labeled "deviations" by theWebmaster I spoke to, I am not encouraged," said one insider.
c|net's million dollar extravaganza - the San Francisco based cable television and online venture announced this week it would launch a million dollar ad campaign on the World Wide Web. The ads will also employ some of Sun's Java features, including animation (you'll need a browser that supports Java to see this).
"Never before in the history of the Internet has one company committed this level of resources to online advertising," said c|net television president and c|net online executive producer Kevin Wendle in the press release.
"Since c|net: the computer network targets people interested in computers, online services and digital technologies, the Internet is the most logical place to reach them most efficiently," said Wendle, who also was a co-founder of Fox Broadcasting co.
Ads will appear on various big sites on the Web, as well as on CompuServe and
According to the Cowles/SIMBA Media Daily, Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen holds a major stake in the company. Seems like Allen has had his mitts on everything at one point or the other (Microsoft,StarWave, and America Online to name a few. Though he sold his shares in AOL sometime back, he definitely helped jack up the price of their stock).
--
DOW JONES says it's Wall Street Journal Money & Investing Update has added 24 hour news updates. Other updates are planned as well. According to Dow Jones, 100,000
have signed up for the Money & Investing update. When you consider the source (Dow Jones and their Wall Street Journal brand) and the price (free), you'd expect that a lot of people would take advantage of it. 100,000 isn't bad, but if there were really gazillions of people on the Web, it would be bigger. It's a very nicely done site. See it for yourself while it's still free at: <http://update.wsj.com > .
--
AT&T and CNN Interactive plan a multi-year alliance to develop online and multimedia information services. Soon, CNN will launch branded content on AT&T's Business Network (which will be available via the Interchange platform and is currently in Beta testing). In the meantime, look for lots of links from AT&T's Business Network to CNN's Web page <http://www.cnn.com/ > .
--
GET A JOB- five of the nine founding members of New Century Network (have joined forces to provide "help wanted" listings on the net. Listings from the The Boston Globe, Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, San Jose Mercury News and The Washington Post will be included at the site called CareerPath.Com at <http://www.careerpath.com/ >. It is fairly easy to use, and free for now. Though, you must register to use the full service.
The American Stock Exchange introduced the Inter@ctive Week Internet Index, or @Net Index, tracking 37 companies. It's listed below under the ticker IIX, and you can follow it that way, or at < http://www.hydra.com/interactive_week.html >
This Last 52 52
Week's Week's Week Week
Company Ticker Close Close High Low
------- ------ ------ ------ ------- -------
@Net Index IIX $218.08 $ -- $223.86 $185.76
America Online AMER $65.75 $65.25 $74.50 $15.19
Apple AAPL $35.13 $36.00 $50.94 $33.63
AT&T T $61.25 $62.38 $66.38 $47.25
Bolt,Beranek & Newman BBN $34.25 $34.88 $39.38 $12.63
FTP Software FTPS $25.13 $24.63 $35.50 $20.25
General Elec. GE $64.63 $63.00 $65.25 $45.38
H&R Block HRB $41.25 $40.00 $47.25 $33.00
IBM IBM $95.38 $92.50 $114.63 $68.00
MCI MCIC $25.00 $24.38 $27.13 $17.25
Mecklermedia Corp. MECK $12.50 $14.00 $24.38 $ 2.13
Microsoft MSFT $95.50 $86.25 $109.25 $58.25
Netcom NETC $47.13 $45.00 $47.63 $16.75
Netscape Comm. Corp NSCP $69.75 $67.25 $75.00 $45.75
NetManage NETM $19.81 $19.38 $27.25 $12.25
News Corp. NWS $20.50 $21.25 $25.13 $14.38
Performance Syst. Intl PSIX $14.25 $15.38 $25.50 $12.00
Sears S $36.00 $35.38 $37.63 $21.50
Spyglass Inc. SPYG $36.75 $36.75 $54.00 $26.50
UUNET Technologies UUNT $41.50 $43.38 $51.75 $21.75
I began writing this newsletter in September 1994, at the time I was working for a technology company that is now owned by MCI. In March, I began working for International Business Machines Corporation. As of July, my management has agreed to allow me to do some work on the newsletter during business hours (probably about 6-8 hours a week). I speak for myself and not for IBM.
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